Nikki Haley gets $70 million from Koch Group to aim for second place

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19 December 2023 (Bloomberg) — Tyler Raygor, campaign flyers in hand, went door to door through tidy Urbandale, Iowa, the other day with a hard-sell pitch: Vote for Nikki Haley.

Door to door, the response was usually the same: no.

Even the Koch political machine – one of the most powerful networks in US conservative politics, and the money behind Raygor’s message – is struggling to change a few minds in Iowa.

Four weeks before the first-in-the-nation caucuses, former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead in this state over Republican rivals Haley and Ron DeSantis.

So commanding, in fact, that the Haley campaign and Americans for Prosperity Action, the advocacy group founded nearly two decades ago by billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch, aren’t trying to win over Trump supporters. They say they’ve amassed $70 million – roughly the same amount President Joe Biden’s campaign raised last quarter – to ensure that Haley, the Koch network’s preferred candidate and a favorite of the Wall Street donor class, comes in a strong second on January 15, ahead of DeSantis.

Raygor is a happy foot-soldier in this big-money battle to deny Trump the 2024 Republican nomination. Americans for Prosperity, a grass-roots behemoth, insists it can defy the polls and secure the nomination for Haley.

But a view from Urbandale’s front porches points one of the bracing new realities in American politics: In the time of Trump, the mighty network backed by Charles Koch isn’t nearly the kingmaker it used to be. (David Koch died of cancer in 2019.)

Diving into primary politics for the first time since Barack Obama last ran for president, Americans for Prosperity has thrown its weight behind Haley, the former governor of South Carolina. Yet, judging by recent polls, theirs is an uphill fight, not only in Iowa but across the nation.

Door Knocking

Last Thursday, Raygor, 31, spent about an hour knocking on doors in Urbandale, a Des Moines suburb. Several people who answered promptly slammed the door. Others told him they were leaning toward DeSantis, the governor of Florida. Only one of the 15 who answered was willing to entertain Haley.

Raygor, a senior adviser for Americans for Prosperity, approached a brick house festooned with holiday garlands. He rang the bell and took a studied step back.

Kelli Schoney answered. A 41-year-old stay-at-home mom, she is one of several thousand Iowans AFP has identified a new or “persuadable” Iowa caucus-goer.

Raygor smiled and began his pitch. Haley, he said, has the best chance of beating Biden next November. Republicans need to move on from Trump, he said.

Schoney was leaning toward DeSantis, who has been marginally ahead of Haley in recent polls in Iowa. The Florida governor’s team, which blew into Iowa early with a big on-the-ground operation, had beaten Raygor to Schoney’s door.

In recent months, the DeSantis team has been wracked with tumult, most recently mass turnover among the upper rungs of his allied super political action committee, which could endanger his ground operation. Trump’s inevitability has hardened as DeSantis has struggled in the polls.

“We cannot have four more years of Trump’s divisiveness,” Schoney said.

On that point, Raygor agreed. He pressed his pitch for Haley, who served as UN ambassador during the Trump administration.

“So, we’re kind of on the same page there as far as we think of Trump,” said Raygor, who voted for Trump himself in the past. Not only might Trump lose to Biden again, Raygor warned, he also might hurt Republicans running for Congress. Haley is Republicans’ best bet, he said.

Schoney said she’d think about it.

Since January, Americans for Prosperity has spent nearly $23 million urging voters to move on from Trump and Biden, according to Bill Riggs, a spokesman for the group. Since AFP publicly endorsed Haley on November 28, it’s spent $4 million helping her campaign.

Those figures suggest just how much the Koch network, which didn’t back Trump in 2016 or 2020, might be willing to spend keep the former president out of the White House.

Haley campaign officials say Koch-aligned resources have breathed new life into their lean operation. The goal is to win enough votes here and in other early-primary states so that even if Trump is the clear winner, Haley nonetheless can present herself as a viable alternative.

Drew Klein, a regional vice president for Americans for Prosperity, said the advocacy group has about 150 volunteers in Iowa going door to door on any given day. It’s also building out digital and mail advertisements. Since endorsing Haley, AFP has reached more than 180,000 voters in Iowa on her behalf, according to Riggs, the AFP spokesman.

Trump Factor

Back in Urbandale, Raygor kept knocking on doors. If no one answered, he left flyers proclaiming “BIDEN FAILED” and “NIKKI HALEY WILL LEAD AMERICA OUT OF THESE DARK DAYS.”

Diane Johansen was someone who answered the door. A 64-year-old life insurance consultant, Johansen told Raygor that people canvassing for DeSantis had come knocking in previous weeks. She said she and her husband probably would “plug their noses” and back Trump.

Nick Ryan, a longtime Republican strategist in Iowa, said he’s noticed more Iowans talking up Donald Trump lately.

“You’re not running in a cycle where everyone is a brand-new candidate,” said Ryan, who has worked on campaigns here for 16 years. “You’re running against a guy that was president.”

Still, Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said Iowan’s views about candidates tend to solidify about two weeks before caucuses. That means Haley – and the Koch network – still have time to get their message out.

“She’s in contention still here in Iowa,” Hagle said of Haley.