Major drop in Indian American support for Biden; Low outreach to community by both parties: Survey

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Indian American support for President Joe Biden dropped significantly this year compared to what it was four years ago, according to the 2024 Asian American Survey released July 10, jointly by APIA Vote, AAPI Data, Asian Americans Advancing Justice and American Association of Retired Persons. The outreach to this community from the two major parties was sorely lacking so far, though there are still more than 3 months left to the November 4 elections and things could change.

While the Outreach factor could explain the low favorability ratings of the two leading candidates, the major drop in Biden’s rating could be the first Presidential debate and his performance, which continues to reverberate with calls for him to step down.

The Asian American Voter Surveys (AAVS) are election-year surveys of registered AAPI voters, capturing the perspectives of voters and their priorities across various years.

The Survey, conducted every two years since 2014, showed the Indian American vote for Biden, which was at 65 percent in 2020, would be around 46 percent if the election took place today. This was the largest drop among all the Asian groups.

At the same time the increase in support among Indian Americans for Donald Trump was marginal – around two points, going from 28 percent in 2020 to 30 percent today.

Interestingly, a significant 20 percent of Indian Americans said they Don’t Know or Refused to Answer the question about their vote, a significant increase from four years ago.

Both major parties did not do a great job of reaching out to Indian Americans, though Democrats registered a higher level. Some 59 percent of Indian respondents said ‘Yes’ on whether they had been approached by both major parties, 37 percent said ‘No’. But on a more graded scale, the outreach by both parties was very low. For example, only 11 percent of Indians said they had been approached “A Great Deal” by the Dems, while 21 percent said “Some” amount, and a large 45 percent said they had “Not At All” been reached out to by the Democratic Party.

As for the Republican Party outreach, only 7 percent of Indians said “A Great Deal”; 16 percent said “Some” amount, and a whopping 53 percent said “Not At All.”

Nevertheless, the Favorable rating remained significantly higher for Biden over Trump. Twenty four percent thought of Biden Very Favorably, 32 percent Somewhat Favorably, 24 percent as Somewhat Unfavorably, and 18 percent Very unfavorably.

For Donald Trump the ‘Favorable’ numbers remained low – 16 percent Very Favorably; 19 percent Somewhat Favorable, 21 percent Somewhat unfavorable; and a whopping 42 percent Very Unfavorable.

Notably, when asked how they viewed a Vice President Kamala Harris candidacy for President, 16 percent of Indian Americans had a Very Favorable view; 38 percent Somewhat Favorable, 23 percent Somewhat Favorable, and 15 percent were Very Unfavorable.

The numbers were worse for former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley – 6 percent Very Favorable; 27 percent Somewhat Favorable; 26 percent Somewhat Unfavorable; and 20 percent Very Unfavorable. A significant 11 percent of Indian Americans responded to Haven’t Heard of her.

Regarding upcoming elections for the U.S. Senate, 55 percent of Indian Americans say they would vote Democratic, and 29 percent say they would vote Republican; As for their choice for the House of Representatives, more than half (53 percent) said they would vote Democratic, and less than a third (31 percent) said they would vote Republican

The Survey showed that 47 percent of Indians identified themselves at Democrats, 25 percent as Independents, and 21 percent as Republicans.

However, the numbers rose when the respondents included those who were Independents leaning toward Democrats or Republicans.

Support from Indian Americans rose from 47 percent to 56 percent when Independents Leaning Democratic was combined with those who were outright Dems; For Republicans it rose from 21 percent to 26 percent when Independents Leaning Republican was added.

Since 2018, and especially during the 2020 elections, along with the dramatic rise in Asian American voting levels, Indian Americans have seen themselves as making a decisive difference in swing states and overall. The two major parties have recognized this and one would have expected a stepped-up outreach to Asian and Indian American voters. The data in the current survey shows much more needs to be done to register an uptick in the outreach to Indian and other Asian American voters.

Past AAPIData surveys have revealed the period between 2018 to 2020 elections saw record increases in voter turnout among Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (AAPIs).

In 2020, Asian Americans saw a significant double-digit increase in presidential turnout (11 points). Also, in 2020, almost 60% (7.6 million) of the Asian American citizen age voting population turned out. In battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania, the number of Asian Americans who cast their ballot in 2020 exceeded the presidential margin of victory.

The key findings of this latest survey showed a slight dip of 3 percent in Asian American registered voters saying they plan to vote for President, Congress and other offices this November – from 93 percent in 2020, to 90 percent now. Still, more than two-thirds of Asian American voters (68%) say they are absolutely certain they will vote this year. Among younger voters between 18-34, 85 percent say they plan to vote, and 62 percent say they are absolutely certain they will vote in November.