Kamala Harris can win Arizona. Republicans are helping.

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(Bloomberg Opinion) — We may never know the reasons why Vice President Kamala Harris decided not to pick popular Arizona Senator Mark Kelly as her running mate and go with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz instead.

Some say it’s because Kelly is a boring public speaker who would have flopped on the campaign trail, despite his awe-inspiring career as an astronaut and fighter pilot. Others say it’s because labor leaders, key to the Democratic coalition, didn’t trust him.

But I suspect that Harris had another reason for her decision – one that will only become more apparent in the coming months. Put simply, Democrats don’t need Kelly on the ticket to win Arizona – not when Republicans continue to back a slate of “weird” down-ballot candidates playing right into the narrative trap that Democrats have set for them.

As Democratic strategist Stacy Pearson once explained to me: “As long as whoever it is is running against a tinfoil hat wearer, they’re pretty safe.”

To be sure, this wasn’t the dominant thinking as recently two weeks ago when Donald Trump, his running mate JD Vance and other Republicans were ramping up their attacks on Harris as a “failed border czar.” Kelly, then still on Harris’ shortlist for vice president, was being touted as a way to counter GOP messaging in the swing state because of his moderate politics and deep knowledge of immigration policy and border security.

But as we’ve seen repeatedly in this election cycle, a lot can change in two weeks. And Arizona has had quite the couple of weeks.

It started when John Giles, the Republican mayor of Mesa, the state’s third largest city, published a July 29 op-ed endorsing Harris as a much-needed leader “who will put country over party.”

“Our party used to stand for the belief that every Arizonan, no matter their background or circumstances, should have the freedom, opportunity and security to live out their American Dream,” Giles wrote in the Arizona Republic. “But since Donald Trump refused to accept the outcome of the 2020 election, Republicans have yet to course correct. The Republican Party with Trump at its helm continues down the path of political extremism, away from focusing on our fundamental freedoms.”

Nevertheless, the following day Republican primary voters handed victories to roughly a dozen candidates who have trafficked in conspiracy theories and election denialism. These voters apparently want half-baked schemes, like the one involving the “fake electors” who tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Among the candidates who won their primary was election denier Kari Lake, who is running to replace the retiring Senator Kyrsten Sinema while still pursuing legal challenges over losing the 2022 gubernatorial race to Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake seems to have learned nothing, telling Punchbowl News this week that the way to win back moderate Republicans and independents is to double down on MAGA. “I honestly believe that the America First agenda is the greatest way for people in the middle,” she said.

Also notable, Maricopa County’s top elections official, Stephen Richer, lost his primary to state Representative Justin Heap, whose campaign was led by a Trump fake elector. “This November,” Heap boasted on X, “we will end the laughingstock elections that have plagued our county, state and nation.”

As terrible as this sounds for Democrats’ electoral prospects in the state, it might not be. Voter turnout for the primary was unusually low and the results have helped bring more Republicans into the fight on behalf of Democrats.

Giles announced this week that he and former state Representative Robin Shaw would co-chair a new group of Arizona Republicans supporting Harris’ bid for the White House. It’s similar to a group of Republicans who helped reelect Kelly in 2022.

“Our message is to our fellow Republican brothers and sisters, which is, ‘It’s OK to vote against Donald Trump,’” Giles told the Arizona Republic. “It’s OK to vote for the best candidate and let’s repair our party.”

Statewide polls show a tight race between Harris and Trump, as well as for several down-ballot races for Congress and the state legislature, which could return to Democratic control for the first time in decades.

Immigration and border security remain the top issues and Giles warned that bringing around voters will be a challenge for Harris. “The vice president’s going to have to come to Arizona and convince the people here that she has a good policy and that she is going to work, treating it as a problem to be solved, as opposed to President Trump’s approach, which is to treat it as an issue to be exploited,” Giles told PBS NewsHour.

But that doesn’t mean Arizona isn’t winnable for Democrats, especially with a group of prominent Republican allies on Harris’ side. Kelly has vowed to help Harris even though he wasn’t selected as her running mate.

Harris and Walz will make a campaign stop in Phoenix on Friday as part of their first swing state tour, and Giles has been invited to attend.

In this state, perhaps more than any other, millions of voters are utterly exhausted with the MAGA-brand of conspiracy theories and election denial. In that exhaustion, there’s opportunity.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

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Erika D. Smith is a politics and policy columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. She is a former Los Angeles Times columnist and Sacramento Bee editorial board member.