Axis My America poll, in partnership with ITV Gold, predicts Trump’s victory, Republicans lead in Electoral College votes

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Less than a week before the November 5, 2024, elections, Axis My America (AMA), a consumer intelligence company, has released its United States Presidential Election 2024 Prediction. An Oct. 30, 2024, press release says the poll is based on an extensive national survey covering about 9,593 respondents across all 50 states & District of Columbia. It projects that Republican candidate Donald Trump holds a slight edge with 49% of the Popular Vote and an estimated 291 (+15) electoral votes, compared to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris’s 48% Popular Vote and 247 (+15) electoral votes. Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are the states with a very close fight which could swing 15 electoral votes to either party.

The AMA says its survey used a comprehensive methodology, incorporating face-to-face interviews and direct panel interactions to capture genuine voter sentiment, and analyze key issues shaping the election. The Prediction Model is notably a Harvard Business Case Study and has an accuracy rate of 92% in the last 12 years while calling 76 elections including 3 General elections, it adds.

Michigan (15), Wisconsin (10) & Pennsylvania (19) are the states with very close fight,
hence range of 15 Electoral Votes may swing either side.

According to AMA’s findings, the election landscape is shaped by economic concerns, with inflation and healthcare access emerging as top voter priorities.

“The survey shows a close race, reflecting a nation divided over key issues such as national security, immigration, and economic stability. Demographic,” AMA says, adding that further  analysis reveals notable shifts: White and Hispanic voters are leaning towards the Republican Party, while African Americans largely favor the Democratic Party. Gender plays a distinct role, with men supporting Trump and women favoring Harris. Younger voters (18-34) show stronger support for the Democratic Party, while older voters (45+) lean Republican. With these divisions, the election outcome may come down to candidates’ ability to address core issues that resonate with diverse voting groups.

AMA’s report emphasizes the critical role of swing states, particularly Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where close polling margins suggest a tight race. Other pivotal battlegrounds like Arizona, Georgia show narrow divides that could tip either way. In Michigan, a slight Democratic edge exists, driven by strong African American and Asian American support, while White American voters lean Republican. In contrast, Pennsylvania is experiencing shifts among Asian American and White voters towards the Republican Party, with employment and inflation cited as key concerns. Wisconsin reflects a blend of shifting loyalties, with Independents and some Democratic voters moving towards the GOP, underscoring the fluidity and intensity of competition in swing states. Interestingly, battleground beyond the traditional swing states is also evolving. Shifting voter priorities and narrowing margins are expanding the traditional swing-state battleground to new states.

About Axis My America

Axis My America, a subsidiary of Axis My India, says it draws from over two decades of expertise in public opinion analytics. “AMA is committed to bridging gaps in understanding by transforming insights into actionable information for policymakers, businesses, and the public sectors,” the company emphasizes, adding that by leveraging face-to-face research methodologies, it captures authentic public sentiment on pivotal issues. “This commitment to real-world insights aligns with Axis My India’s mission to connect with citizens, provide solutions, and create positive social impact.”  AMA’s client roster includes global leaders such as Unilever, Procter & Gamble, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, The Union etc.

The Prediction Model is notably a Harvard Business Case Study and has an accuracy rate of 92% in the last 12 years while calling 76 elections including 3 General elections.

The study was led by pollster Pradeep Gupta.

About ITV Gold and Parikh Worldwide Media Group

ITV Gold is a prominent South Asian television network in the United States, delivering nuanced perspectives on key political, social, and cultural issues. As a part of Parikh Worldwide Media Group, ITV Gold benefits from an established media network that includes News India Times, Desi Talk in New York, Desi Talk in Chicago, and The Indian American. With headquarters in New York, Chicago, and California, Parikh Worldwide Media Group is a cornerstone of Indian-American journalism, dedicated to informing, engaging, and empowering the South Asian community nationwide.

For more information, visit https://axismyamerica.com or contact info@axismyamerica.com.